油價

小學讀書己經聽過老師上堂無端端講油價無得跌, 個時都唔知係佢講乜, 依家先知以後為人師表既老師..夠膽上堂講佢自己炒賣既事, 我估佢個時都係輸得好慘

石油組織既report
http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20Oil%20Market%20Reports/2008/pdf/MR062008.pdf
全部英文,我都無時間睇晒，我既目標只係想分清楚,油價急升係供求既關掟係炒作。

scan完份野得出來既結論
-demand係升緊但係比07年時低
-依家油價急升係..非常罕有

有人話石油組織講既野..唔何信,但我覺得點都可信過d報紙啦！
咁依家有咩好做呢？油價急升,就成為市場下跌既借口,
如果無基本原因既技持,急升一定會急跌！
既然係咁, 不如買d航運股, 當油跌,佢地就可以反彈了。
如果你覺得油仲有得升,但又唔敢買, 你可以買金, 油升金又會跟住升既..
兩樣都做就可以定d..不過我無晒錢做呢d野了

copy d highlight出來

Oil Market Highlights
􀂃 Market volatility was dominated by a number a factors in May, primarily speculative pressure, fluctuations in the US
dollar and geopolitical concerns. A strike by port workers in France disrupting petroleum shipments and outages in West
Africa further supported the bullish market momentum. Fear over tight supplies of light-end products amid persistent
low refinery run rates kept alertness in place. Nonetheless, higher OPEC output and a move by Asian countries to
reduced subsidies maintained some bearish sentiment. In monthly terms, the Basket reached a record-high of $119.39/b
in May for a gain of $14.23 or 13.5%. In the first two weeks of June, the market came under pressure from fund sell-offs
amid CFTC investigations. However, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, low natural gas storage levels and
speculative price projections by investment banks revived market bullishness. The fear premium was boosted by the
threat of conflict in the Middle East triggering another wave of fund inflows in the futures market. The Basket surged to
a record high of $130.87/b on 9 June before declining to stand at $129.77/b on 12 June.
􀂃 World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month. Following a stronger-thanexpected
performance in the first quarter, forecasts for the Euro-zone and the USA have been revised up slightly by
0.1% to 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Japanese growth is unchanged at 1.4%. US payrolls in May fell for the fifth
month, as job losses rose by 49,000 and the unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 5.5%. The ISM services index remained
above 50 for the second month, indicating that the bulk of the economy was still growing, albeit at a reduced rate, but
manufacturing continued to contract. The dollar recovered from April lows but remained volatile at the start of June, as
the US Federal Reserve signaled clearly that the monetary easing cycle was at an end, and the European Central Bank
prepared the ground for a possible hike in July. Attention turned decidedly to the need for anchoring inflationary
expectations. Inflation remains the main concern worldwide, fed by uninterrupted hikes in food and energy prices.
India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.6%, while China remains unchanged at 9.7% and Russia’s growth forecast was
lifted 0.3 percentage points to 7.3%.
􀂃 Consumption of winter products declined in the first quarter of 2008 in the OECD as a result of the below-normal winter
temperatures. In addition, demand for transport fuel (mainly gasoline) in the OECD in general but particularly the US
did not grow as expected as a result of slow economic activity and current oil prices. Growth in the other OECD regions
was not enough to offset the decline in oil demand in the US in the first five months of 2008. The slowing US economy
and the current price environment will affect oil demand not only in the US but also across the OECD in the second half
of this year. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to show healthy growth in oil demand for the rest of the year.
Despite the recent removal of price subsidies in some Asian countries, non OECD demand is expected to partially offset
the decline in the US, Europe, and the Pacific. As a result, demand is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2008 to average
86.9 mb/d, a reduction of 60 tb/d from last month’s forecast.
􀂃 Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d to reach 50.1 mb/d, a downward revision of around 50 tb/d
compared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions made to UK, Australia, Sudan and Kazakhstan were
partially offset by upward adjustments made to USA, Argentina and Russia. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in
2008 are expected to grow at 0.5 mb/d to reach 4.9 mb/d. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, an
increase of 343 tb/d from the previous month, with production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq witnessing significant increases.
􀂃 Irregular circumstances in the crude market overshadowed positive developments in the product markets, undermining
refining margins in Europe and Asia. The continuing volatile sentiment of the oil market along with slowing gasoline
demand, particularly in the US, may also cap the seasonal bullish developments in the product markets and exert further
pressure on the refining economics in the future. However, unplanned refinery outages due to a potentially active
hurricane season could change the current prospects of the product markets lifting product and crude prices as well as
refining margins.
􀂃 OPEC spot fixtures dropped 0.6 mb/d in May to average 13.46 mb/d, which corresponds to two-thirds of total spot
fixtures. Similarly, OPEC sailings fell a minor 0.21 mb/d to 23.25 mb/d, partially due to the refinery maintenance
season. The tanker market sentiment remained bullish in May due to tonnage tightness which caused spot freight rates to
increase on all reported routes in an unseasonal trend. The highest gain was observed in VLCCs trading between the
Middle East and the East with an increase of more than 60% in spot freight rates from the previous month.
􀂃 US commercial oil stocks dropped 4 mb in May due to a draw of more than 19 mb on crude oil inventories and a build
of 15 mb in products. At nearly 306 mb, crude oil stocks are near the five-year average despite the drop which was
driven by low imports following delays in the US Gulf Coast. Gasoline stocks remained within the range while distillate
inventories continued to improve to approach the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories
followed their seasonal trend, jumping 15 mb to remain within the upper end of the five-year range at end-May.
However, total inventories in Japan recovered further in April before surging 14 mb in May to move within the five-year
range, according to preliminary estimates.
􀂃 The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 260 tb/d over the previous year.
In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d or 130 tb/d lower than in the previous year.