大家如有留意..最近壽仔跌得慢, 升得快...
升得快好易明..升得快咁散戶得個望字, 到追入個時..又容易摸左個頂。
但係點解要慢慢跌呢？
-俾機會d人放貨掟俾機會d人買貨？
一般都會諗諗大戶有咁好死？慢慢跌, 慢慢跌俾d散戶入平貨？
一舨都會跌得急, 跌到散戶唔敢入貨, 反而張手中既貨震埋出來，好似8月17日咁。
其實慢慢跌都可以消耙散戶既心理, 等下跌d等下跌d..日日都唔升..
係人都想放左佢啦...有幾多人會去接貨呀？
不過升同跌有個根本既分別
跌50%, 升100%先打和。
巴菲特講過,所以買股票一定唔可以輸！
因為你輸一半身家, 到時你要賺一倍先打和！
雖然我一直都看好, 但係我都有提過壽仔30,31係阻力位, 耐何我沒有進行這些套利行為。
理智一點..如能特破31 便可再升一層,到時阻力便在33，反則如跌穿28..則..再讓小弟有吸納機會。
2008年7月29日星期二
大力弘扬伟大的抗震救灾精神 扎实推进国际顶级金融保险集团建设
杨超认为，中国人寿在“5.12” 抗震救灾中的最大收获。一是各级党组织、领导班子和员工队伍经受住了考验，企业凝聚力明显提升；二是在危难面前勇于承担，公司社会地位得到提升，品牌影响 力有效扩大，员工自豪感大大增强；三是企业精神风貌充分展示，企业文化内涵得到丰富；四是积累了应对巨灾的专业工作经验，增强了服务和谐社会建设的光荣 感、责任感。通过抗震救灾理赔实践，他们深刻体会到，第一，与祖国人民同呼吸共命运、勇担行业和社会责任，是做好抗震救灾理赔工作的强大精神动力；第二， 坚强有力的领导、正确果断的决策，是做好抗震救灾理赔工作的前提基础；第三，广大员工和营销员顾全大局、忘我拼搏、无私奉献，是做好抗震救灾理赔工作的根 本保证；第四，精心组织、团结协作、步调一致，是做好抗震救灾理赔工作的重要条件。这些收获和体会，将会转化为他们推进国际顶级金融保险集团建设的巨大精 神力量。
杨超强调，中国人寿打造国际顶级金融保险集团尤其需要发扬伟大的抗震救灾精神。他要求全系统从八个方面积极努力。一是坚持学习先进、 弘扬正气，努力培育符合中国人寿特色的企业精神；二是坚持以人为本、科学发展，切实做到“效益最好、形象最佳、回报最大”；三是坚持不畏艰险、创新进取， 努力实现又好又快发展；四是坚持团结协作、共享资源，不断增强整体竞争实力；五是坚持厉行节约、艰苦奋斗，集中力量办大事；六是坚持号令如山、步调一致， 努力打造高执行力员工队伍；七是坚持善始善终、信守承诺，坚决夺取抗震救灾理赔工作的全面胜利；八是坚持服从大局、干好本职，以实际行动和出色业绩服务经 济社会发展。
杨超号召全系统要结合学习宣传本系统的抗震救灾先进典型，深入开展学习宣传全国抗震救灾英模的活动，迅速掀起学先进、赶先进的高潮， 并以此为契机，进一步加强党的基层组织和党员先进性建设，加强干部职工队伍建设，不断提高员工思想业务素质和队伍执行力，为打造国际顶级金融保险集团提供 可靠的组织保障和智力支持。
会议以视频形式召开。主会场设在成都，集团各成员单位总部和地市级以上机构设有分会场。集团公司和集团各成员单位总部有关领导、部门 负责人和受表彰的先进代表，四川省和成都市部分员工代表约300人出席了主会场的会议。全系统其他干部职工、营销员代表在分会场参加会议。
2008年7月27日星期日
星期五多數都跌
"星期五多數都跌" 你唔知有無呢個感覺呢？我就有啦..尤其是0岩0岩個星期五真係跌..
不過感覺呢d太難捉摸..所以..想統計一下..究竟星期五係未多數都跌..
我淨係比較各個星期既收市價, 發覺星期五比星期四既收市價高既機會只有50%,
己經係最低的！
而星期三比星期二既數市價高既機會就差唔多有60%咁多, 即係話星期二買比係星期四要好,
最少之後個日升既機會多10%.而且由上年六月開始, 星期三比星期二收高既機會一直係最高,
點解會咁奇怪呢？
其實我唔知準唔準, 而且我買完又唔會即刻放,不過知多樣野都好既.
5號仔我都有買過..不過收完息就快放左...不過 作為長線投資5號仔係好好。
順便睇埋佢星期五係未咁差啦..原來星期五,同星期四有超過5成機會比上個交易日收低, 其他都係得5成！即係佢收市價好差...成日都俾人"整"低
今個星期係林森池暫時封咪, 唉..真係有d失望！我個個星期都聽佢講, 佢真係睇到一d我地睇唔到既野, 而且肯講出來！壽仔就快有中期業,希望到時佢會客串下出來講兩句啦！
不過感覺呢d太難捉摸..所以..想統計一下..究竟星期五係未多數都跌..
我淨係比較各個星期既收市價, 發覺星期五比星期四既收市價高既機會只有50%,
己經係最低的！
而星期三比星期二既數市價高既機會就差唔多有60%咁多, 即係話星期二買比係星期四要好,
最少之後個日升既機會多10%.而且由上年六月開始, 星期三比星期二收高既機會一直係最高,
點解會咁奇怪呢？
其實我唔知準唔準, 而且我買完又唔會即刻放,不過知多樣野都好既.
5號仔我都有買過..不過收完息就快放左...不過 作為長線投資5號仔係好好。
順便睇埋佢星期五係未咁差啦..原來星期五,同星期四有超過5成機會比上個交易日收低, 其他都係得5成！即係佢收市價好差...成日都俾人"整"低
今個星期係林森池暫時封咪, 唉..真係有d失望！我個個星期都聽佢講, 佢真係睇到一d我地睇唔到既野, 而且肯講出來！壽仔就快有中期業,希望到時佢會客串下出來講兩句啦！
2008年7月22日星期二
v仔主席講野
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHMaE_TJCvaw
我都未睇...無野講住
英文麻麻地..
-cost effective compare to other manufacture
-keep improving profit margin
-new product integrated access device, IAD, ( cable modem, dect phone, wireless router)
-learning growth in European market
佢表現得好有信心..咁有信先出來講野..唔通無錢賺都出來講野咩...
所以佢一面到話v仔幾掂..都估到。但係我最想知我最知咁多現金law來做咩？
係未應該law 來投資呢？可惜無提到！
我都未睇...無野講住
英文麻麻地..
-cost effective compare to other manufacture
-keep improving profit margin
-new product integrated access device, IAD, ( cable modem, dect phone, wireless router)
-learning growth in European market
佢表現得好有信心..咁有信先出來講野..唔通無錢賺都出來講野咩...
所以佢一面到話v仔幾掂..都估到。但係我最想知我最知咁多現金law來做咩？
係未應該law 來投資呢？可惜無提到！
滙豐差d食我張卡(必看！)
我諗好多人都去過櫃員機入卡law錢, 我咁大個仔都未俾佢食過卡...
今晚就差差d中招
入完卡部機hang左係個廣告畫面，幾分鐘, 發覺唔對路, 賣廣告唔洗賣咁耐掛？
唔通俾部機食左我張卡？咁點算？熱線幾多號？
部機一印左個熱線, 心諗..真係xzy..即係打熱線27484848
好快有接線生聽電話, 問左幾句, 講左櫃員機既地址, 佢話要等等,叫同事馬上查下,
等左一陣, 個廣告消失左, 入返正常畫面, 我拿拿臨, law完走, law 卡走人。
佢都仲未應我, 我以為真係hsbc個network真係咁勁秋, 仲係度讚佢效率奇高,
點知佢一出聲就叫我報失, 佢話最近network成日有事, 所以d機好慢, 我心諗無理由
慢成10分鐘掛！
算啦, 呢個故事, 教訓我 就算疑似食卡都唔好走,如果你走左..佢轉頭嘔返張咭出來俾人law左點算呀！ 幾大都要打電詁, 同埋等可能有奇蹟出現,
滙豐................唉！
今晚就差差d中招
入完卡部機hang左係個廣告畫面，幾分鐘, 發覺唔對路, 賣廣告唔洗賣咁耐掛？
唔通俾部機食左我張卡？咁點算？熱線幾多號？
部機一印左個熱線, 心諗..真係xzy..即係打熱線27484848
好快有接線生聽電話, 問左幾句, 講左櫃員機既地址, 佢話要等等,叫同事馬上查下,
等左一陣, 個廣告消失左, 入返正常畫面, 我拿拿臨, law完走, law 卡走人。
佢都仲未應我, 我以為真係hsbc個network真係咁勁秋, 仲係度讚佢效率奇高,
點知佢一出聲就叫我報失, 佢話最近network成日有事, 所以d機好慢, 我心諗無理由
慢成10分鐘掛！
算啦, 呢個故事, 教訓我 就算疑似食卡都唔好走,如果你走左..佢轉頭嘔返張咭出來俾人law左點算呀！ 幾大都要打電詁, 同埋等可能有奇蹟出現,
滙豐................唉！
2008年7月21日星期一
執行力 同心理質素
好多股仔今日發威, 不過突然諗到以下幾條問題,
有幾多人今日返家嫏？
又有幾多人帳面仲蝕緊？
又有幾多人止蝕左...依家望住d股票係咁升？
又有幾多真係無入市...見高怕高見低等低？
我唔係好識炒波幅, 亦唔算對保險業好熟識，不過對自己定下既計劃就有一定既執行力,
同心理質素。
己經有n個原因叫我買壽仔, 咁就要買..但係要幾錢買？
之前自己估ev 2倍, 即係24..係最低..點...咁31/28/26/25..越低越買, 我無諗住自己會買到個底,
但係定左好價,計劃左.就買, 越跌越買, 買就唔打算放。跌到25蚊個時, 31蚊買緊係做左傻仔,
有人會話早知就唔買住！？我一定唔會咁諗啦！有早知無乞丐！
但係有人會見佢跌, 不如就等下, 31 唔買, 話等30,見30 唔買話等28, 見28 唔買話等26...
結果25 佢都無買到。我咁講唔代表佢錯..可能聽日大跌市..有邊個知？
但係我想講..你既判斷同執行力唔一致！一起你一早話20先買, 唔係你以前決定31買己經
失敗左！
一個無計劃既決定，如果成功只是僥倖！
一個有計劃既決定，就算失敗也有經驗！
同埋係呢d大跌市, 心理質素好緊要, 重要過智識！好多好叻既人...之前放晒壽仔..摸住個底來放....我都唔知點解..
有幾多人今日返家嫏？
又有幾多人帳面仲蝕緊？
又有幾多人止蝕左...依家望住d股票係咁升？
又有幾多真係無入市...見高怕高見低等低？
我唔係好識炒波幅, 亦唔算對保險業好熟識，不過對自己定下既計劃就有一定既執行力,
同心理質素。
己經有n個原因叫我買壽仔, 咁就要買..但係要幾錢買？
之前自己估ev 2倍, 即係24..係最低..點...咁31/28/26/25..越低越買, 我無諗住自己會買到個底,
但係定左好價,計劃左.就買, 越跌越買, 買就唔打算放。跌到25蚊個時, 31蚊買緊係做左傻仔,
有人會話早知就唔買住！？我一定唔會咁諗啦！有早知無乞丐！
但係有人會見佢跌, 不如就等下, 31 唔買, 話等30,見30 唔買話等28, 見28 唔買話等26...
結果25 佢都無買到。我咁講唔代表佢錯..可能聽日大跌市..有邊個知？
但係我想講..你既判斷同執行力唔一致！一起你一早話20先買, 唔係你以前決定31買己經
失敗左！
一個無計劃既決定，如果成功只是僥倖！
一個有計劃既決定，就算失敗也有經驗！
同埋係呢d大跌市, 心理質素好緊要, 重要過智識！好多好叻既人...之前放晒壽仔..摸住個底來放....我都唔知點解..
2008年7月17日星期四
2008年7月16日星期三
2008年7月14日星期一
MHP2G 四小強
當MHP2G 出既時候, 諗住唔打, 因為太浪費時間..
但係人邊好多人都話MHP2G有關大連續好難打...我又唔信呀..
話晒MHP2都LAW左個劍聖頭盔呀！有咩難到我先？
咁就開始玩下啦...尋日終於有呢一版出來..開頭好似好難打,
不過失敗幾次之後, 睇下YOU TUBE D人點打,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9oKGdlLgOo&feature=related
不過我跟唔到佢地咁勁, 但係都好快打嬴左LU。
金獅裝
達人大劍G
加珠發動->拔刀術
調合書1,2,3
大回X10
回X10
力之爪
力之護符
守之爪
素材彈X30
音爆彈X10
閃火彈X5
光蟲X10
網X3
砥石X10
興奮磨姑X10
怪力之種X10
忍耐之種X10
強走藥X5
秘藥X2
回家彈
蜂密X10
麻穴
落穴
陷阱工具
應該帶強走藥GX5, 不過我懶得找點調合, 又深信好快可以殺死D小強, 所以算啦
食埋奶,同酒做貓飯,
體力+50
耐力+50
就衝入去打啦！興奮磨姑同素材彈調合成回家彈, 呢個好好用呀..打金獅有咩唔小心...
一下可以返屋企補血...好正嫁！不過會搞到D大回用唔晒嫁..哈哈
雄火龍
-等佢跳上去..蓄力3段斬頭
-擺尾可以偷斬
-噴火又可以蓄力3段斬頭
機會好多..約5分鐘KO
轟龍
-食強走
-閃光彈
-如果發傻, 蓄力3段打頭, 若不也可快斬頭一下
-靠牆企, 引佢咬實牆再蓄力3段斬頭, 有時唔夠時間就3段斬身
-
打得慢...8分鐘先KO
迅龍
-音爆彈
-佢條尾樹起時(特别姿勢), 扔出音爆彈, 就3段斬頭, 後可以係肚肉亂斬
-佢張大個口時要避..唔係扣好多血
-其實我唔係好識打迅龍 (因為MHP2無丫麻)..又扔唔中音爆彈...
.要用左十幾分鐘先斬死佢.. 而且俾佢殺死左..>_<
金獅
-好簡單咁...用2個麻穴,3個落穴(每個落穴可以3段斬頭3次) 送佢歸西
-其實唔用都得,
-射光線就3段斬頭,
-出拳就斬腳
-跳後就追佢頭來斬
10分鐘KO了, 打完仲有剛角...正呀！
自問唔係高手.........不過要過關應該難唔到我既..呵呵
因為我唔識打迅龍都打得嬴, 所以大家唔好氣餒..加油啦！
但係人邊好多人都話MHP2G有關大連續好難打...我又唔信呀..
話晒MHP2都LAW左個劍聖頭盔呀！有咩難到我先？
咁就開始玩下啦...尋日終於有呢一版出來..開頭好似好難打,
不過失敗幾次之後, 睇下YOU TUBE D人點打,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9oKGdlLgOo&feature=related
不過我跟唔到佢地咁勁, 但係都好快打嬴左LU。
金獅裝
達人大劍G
加珠發動->拔刀術
調合書1,2,3
大回X10
回X10
力之爪
力之護符
守之爪
素材彈X30
音爆彈X10
閃火彈X5
光蟲X10
網X3
砥石X10
興奮磨姑X10
怪力之種X10
忍耐之種X10
強走藥X5
秘藥X2
回家彈
蜂密X10
麻穴
落穴
陷阱工具
應該帶強走藥GX5, 不過我懶得找點調合, 又深信好快可以殺死D小強, 所以算啦
食埋奶,同酒做貓飯,
體力+50
耐力+50
就衝入去打啦！興奮磨姑同素材彈調合成回家彈, 呢個好好用呀..打金獅有咩唔小心...
一下可以返屋企補血...好正嫁！不過會搞到D大回用唔晒嫁..哈哈
雄火龍
-等佢跳上去..蓄力3段斬頭
-擺尾可以偷斬
-噴火又可以蓄力3段斬頭
機會好多..約5分鐘KO
轟龍
-食強走
-閃光彈
-如果發傻, 蓄力3段打頭, 若不也可快斬頭一下
-靠牆企, 引佢咬實牆再蓄力3段斬頭, 有時唔夠時間就3段斬身
-
打得慢...8分鐘先KO
迅龍
-音爆彈
-佢條尾樹起時(特别姿勢), 扔出音爆彈, 就3段斬頭, 後可以係肚肉亂斬
-佢張大個口時要避..唔係扣好多血
-其實我唔係好識打迅龍 (因為MHP2無丫麻)..又扔唔中音爆彈...
.要用左十幾分鐘先斬死佢.. 而且俾佢殺死左..>_<
金獅
-好簡單咁...用2個麻穴,3個落穴(每個落穴可以3段斬頭3次) 送佢歸西
-其實唔用都得,
-射光線就3段斬頭,
-出拳就斬腳
-跳後就追佢頭來斬
10分鐘KO了, 打完仲有剛角...正呀！
自問唔係高手.........不過要過關應該難唔到我既..呵呵
因為我唔識打迅龍都打得嬴, 所以大家唔好氣餒..加油啦！
2008年7月12日星期六
2008年7月10日星期四
再睇壽仔圖
今次撈底行動，令我無晒cash,係呢大升大跌既市, 思前想後, 都係想減持手中既股票,
想放當然係v仔, 不過多數人都留意壽仔..所以講佢先啦...
今次出現左幾個裂口式下跌, 31-29, 29-28,28-27,最低個裂口己經補回。
這種裂口可視為阻力位, 即係話升到呢位, 會有一定貨沽出來,
如果有大量人接貨, 一下子就升破呢d裂口, 咁就會一段爆上...
較為保守既策略 28-29 減持 , 29-31 再減持, 等升穿31 碓認真係展開升浪..就補返d貨。
咁樣可能苯左...因為如果升..就應該一直唔好放....但係呢d市今日升完怕聽日跌,
聽日跌完後日又升..邊個咁講實..有咩事唔會發生？
但係我都唔係一個保守既人....哈哈..
想放當然係v仔, 不過多數人都留意壽仔..所以講佢先啦...
今次出現左幾個裂口式下跌, 31-29, 29-28,28-27,最低個裂口己經補回。
這種裂口可視為阻力位, 即係話升到呢位, 會有一定貨沽出來,
如果有大量人接貨, 一下子就升破呢d裂口, 咁就會一段爆上...
較為保守既策略 28-29 減持 , 29-31 再減持, 等升穿31 碓認真係展開升浪..就補返d貨。
咁樣可能苯左...因為如果升..就應該一直唔好放....但係呢d市今日升完怕聽日跌,
聽日跌完後日又升..邊個咁講實..有咩事唔會發生？
但係我都唔係一個保守既人....哈哈..
日升日跌
一日升一日跌..個市究竟係度做緊d乜？我唔敢亂估, 淨係覺得有趣味。
有人俾個市震走,也有人係咁入貨..十五十六既人都有好多, 無他的, 市況好唔穩定, 有人睇好
有人睇淡。邊個先0岩？要由時間去證明。
但係最緊要知道自己做緊d咩呀, 例如壽仔, 35蚊開始跌, 我31蚊左右可以入, 有人28/29入, 但係25/26忍唔住走人, 而我就一直入。 我睇長線，只要無野影響對壽仔既長線收入, 我當然歡迎股價下跌, 因為我唔係短炒。但係如果你係想短炒壽仔,你係用咩原因入市？又用咩原因離場？
入市係用真金白銀, 用血汗錢,真係要諗清諗楚先好做決定。可能第時壽仔跌去廿蚊, 咁我就傻仔..
但係呢d唔緊要, 最緊要背後既原因。
話說兩頭,如果想短炒, 何不炒油,炒金炒,航空股呢？短線要波幅大先有肉食丫麻..
v仔係咁俾人唱淡, 我見佢面對既問題越來越多,
1.油價
2.人仔
3.美國經濟越來越差
4.無論電話,玩具.都無咩新產品
5.現金多..好似想玩收購, 不過記得以前收購at&t..出過事..今次都未敢太睇好, 始終都係遲高風險
6.唯一既好就係息高...
不過我都係睇位走人算...我都係偏愛壽仔多d
有人俾個市震走,也有人係咁入貨..十五十六既人都有好多, 無他的, 市況好唔穩定, 有人睇好
有人睇淡。邊個先0岩？要由時間去證明。
但係最緊要知道自己做緊d咩呀, 例如壽仔, 35蚊開始跌, 我31蚊左右可以入, 有人28/29入, 但係25/26忍唔住走人, 而我就一直入。 我睇長線，只要無野影響對壽仔既長線收入, 我當然歡迎股價下跌, 因為我唔係短炒。但係如果你係想短炒壽仔,你係用咩原因入市？又用咩原因離場？
入市係用真金白銀, 用血汗錢,真係要諗清諗楚先好做決定。可能第時壽仔跌去廿蚊, 咁我就傻仔..
但係呢d唔緊要, 最緊要背後既原因。
話說兩頭,如果想短炒, 何不炒油,炒金炒,航空股呢？短線要波幅大先有肉食丫麻..
v仔係咁俾人唱淡, 我見佢面對既問題越來越多,
1.油價
2.人仔
3.美國經濟越來越差
4.無論電話,玩具.都無咩新產品
5.現金多..好似想玩收購, 不過記得以前收購at&t..出過事..今次都未敢太睇好, 始終都係遲高風險
6.唯一既好就係息高...
不過我都係睇位走人算...我都係偏愛壽仔多d
2008年7月3日星期四
v仔2007/2008全年業績
集團的收入較二零七財政年度增加6.0%至1,52,0,0美元。股東應佔溢利上升17.9%至215,70,0美元，每股盈利則上升16.7%至89.4美仙。董事會建議派發末期股息每普通股51.0美仙。連同中期股息每股12.0美仙，全年股息總額為每股普通股63.0美仙。撇除二零七財政年度特別息每股30.0美仙，二零八財政年度每股息較上一財政年度增長26.0%。派息額提高，顯示集團對股東的承諾以及超卓的營運。 營運情況 在二零八財政年度，集團所有業務均面對成本上漲的挑戰。高油價引致塑料價格上升，而商品價格上揚，則全面帶動集團其他生產原材料的價格上漲。
詳細都係自己花d時間去睇...
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20080703/LTN20080703167_C.pdf
同我想像既差不多,收入,淨溢利,派息都上升,令我感都多少意外的是v仔好像事前知道美國經濟會變壞,而致力托展其他地區新既收入來源,而且效果不錯。
北美佔v仔收入下降致55.9%,半年前係57.2%, 一年前係60%.
佢咁識做我都放心d既,因為北美係賺少左錢,但係可以係歐洲同其他地方賺返來,咁就真係本事。
有d數字睇唔清,不過09年既展望係無增長,睇返都幾得人驚, 無辨法,高油價,人民幣升值,弱美元, v仔面對住好多問題，不過呢份成績表都符合我既要求, 依家睇下市場有咩返應嫁炸！
順便講埋今日25蚊買左壽仔,真係接貨接到我不亦樂乎，不過以後既日子要捱麵包了 >_<
2008年7月2日星期三
2008年7月1日星期二
油價
小學讀書己經聽過老師上堂無端端講油價無得跌, 個時都唔知係佢講乜, 依家先知以後為人師表既老師..夠膽上堂講佢自己炒賣既事, 我估佢個時都係輸得好慘
石油組織既report
http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20Oil%20Market%20Reports/2008/pdf/MR062008.pdf
全部英文,我都無時間睇晒，我既目標只係想分清楚,油價急升係供求既關掟係炒作。
scan完份野得出來既結論
-demand係升緊但係比07年時低
-依家油價急升係..非常罕有
有人話石油組織講既野..唔何信,但我覺得點都可信過d報紙啦！
咁依家有咩好做呢？油價急升,就成為市場下跌既借口,
如果無基本原因既技持,急升一定會急跌！
既然係咁, 不如買d航運股, 當油跌,佢地就可以反彈了。
如果你覺得油仲有得升,但又唔敢買, 你可以買金, 油升金又會跟住升既..
兩樣都做就可以定d..不過我無晒錢做呢d野了
copy d highlight出來
Oil Market Highlights
Market volatility was dominated by a number a factors in May, primarily speculative pressure, fluctuations in the US
dollar and geopolitical concerns. A strike by port workers in France disrupting petroleum shipments and outages in West
Africa further supported the bullish market momentum. Fear over tight supplies of light-end products amid persistent
low refinery run rates kept alertness in place. Nonetheless, higher OPEC output and a move by Asian countries to
reduced subsidies maintained some bearish sentiment. In monthly terms, the Basket reached a record-high of $119.39/b
in May for a gain of $14.23 or 13.5%. In the first two weeks of June, the market came under pressure from fund sell-offs
amid CFTC investigations. However, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, low natural gas storage levels and
speculative price projections by investment banks revived market bullishness. The fear premium was boosted by the
threat of conflict in the Middle East triggering another wave of fund inflows in the futures market. The Basket surged to
a record high of $130.87/b on 9 June before declining to stand at $129.77/b on 12 June.
World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month. Following a stronger-thanexpected
performance in the first quarter, forecasts for the Euro-zone and the USA have been revised up slightly by
0.1% to 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Japanese growth is unchanged at 1.4%. US payrolls in May fell for the fifth
month, as job losses rose by 49,000 and the unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 5.5%. The ISM services index remained
above 50 for the second month, indicating that the bulk of the economy was still growing, albeit at a reduced rate, but
manufacturing continued to contract. The dollar recovered from April lows but remained volatile at the start of June, as
the US Federal Reserve signaled clearly that the monetary easing cycle was at an end, and the European Central Bank
prepared the ground for a possible hike in July. Attention turned decidedly to the need for anchoring inflationary
expectations. Inflation remains the main concern worldwide, fed by uninterrupted hikes in food and energy prices.
India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.6%, while China remains unchanged at 9.7% and Russia’s growth forecast was
lifted 0.3 percentage points to 7.3%.
Consumption of winter products declined in the first quarter of 2008 in the OECD as a result of the below-normal winter
temperatures. In addition, demand for transport fuel (mainly gasoline) in the OECD in general but particularly the US
did not grow as expected as a result of slow economic activity and current oil prices. Growth in the other OECD regions
was not enough to offset the decline in oil demand in the US in the first five months of 2008. The slowing US economy
and the current price environment will affect oil demand not only in the US but also across the OECD in the second half
of this year. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to show healthy growth in oil demand for the rest of the year.
Despite the recent removal of price subsidies in some Asian countries, non OECD demand is expected to partially offset
the decline in the US, Europe, and the Pacific. As a result, demand is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2008 to average
86.9 mb/d, a reduction of 60 tb/d from last month’s forecast.
Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d to reach 50.1 mb/d, a downward revision of around 50 tb/d
compared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions made to UK, Australia, Sudan and Kazakhstan were
partially offset by upward adjustments made to USA, Argentina and Russia. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in
2008 are expected to grow at 0.5 mb/d to reach 4.9 mb/d. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, an
increase of 343 tb/d from the previous month, with production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq witnessing significant increases.
Irregular circumstances in the crude market overshadowed positive developments in the product markets, undermining
refining margins in Europe and Asia. The continuing volatile sentiment of the oil market along with slowing gasoline
demand, particularly in the US, may also cap the seasonal bullish developments in the product markets and exert further
pressure on the refining economics in the future. However, unplanned refinery outages due to a potentially active
hurricane season could change the current prospects of the product markets lifting product and crude prices as well as
refining margins.
OPEC spot fixtures dropped 0.6 mb/d in May to average 13.46 mb/d, which corresponds to two-thirds of total spot
fixtures. Similarly, OPEC sailings fell a minor 0.21 mb/d to 23.25 mb/d, partially due to the refinery maintenance
season. The tanker market sentiment remained bullish in May due to tonnage tightness which caused spot freight rates to
increase on all reported routes in an unseasonal trend. The highest gain was observed in VLCCs trading between the
Middle East and the East with an increase of more than 60% in spot freight rates from the previous month.
US commercial oil stocks dropped 4 mb in May due to a draw of more than 19 mb on crude oil inventories and a build
of 15 mb in products. At nearly 306 mb, crude oil stocks are near the five-year average despite the drop which was
driven by low imports following delays in the US Gulf Coast. Gasoline stocks remained within the range while distillate
inventories continued to improve to approach the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories
followed their seasonal trend, jumping 15 mb to remain within the upper end of the five-year range at end-May.
However, total inventories in Japan recovered further in April before surging 14 mb in May to move within the five-year
range, according to preliminary estimates.
The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 260 tb/d over the previous year.
In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d or 130 tb/d lower than in the previous year.
石油組織既report
http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20Oil%20Market%20Reports/2008/pdf/MR062008.pdf
全部英文,我都無時間睇晒，我既目標只係想分清楚,油價急升係供求既關掟係炒作。
scan完份野得出來既結論
-demand係升緊但係比07年時低
-依家油價急升係..非常罕有
有人話石油組織講既野..唔何信,但我覺得點都可信過d報紙啦！
咁依家有咩好做呢？油價急升,就成為市場下跌既借口,
如果無基本原因既技持,急升一定會急跌！
既然係咁, 不如買d航運股, 當油跌,佢地就可以反彈了。
如果你覺得油仲有得升,但又唔敢買, 你可以買金, 油升金又會跟住升既..
兩樣都做就可以定d..不過我無晒錢做呢d野了
copy d highlight出來
Oil Market Highlights
Market volatility was dominated by a number a factors in May, primarily speculative pressure, fluctuations in the US
dollar and geopolitical concerns. A strike by port workers in France disrupting petroleum shipments and outages in West
Africa further supported the bullish market momentum. Fear over tight supplies of light-end products amid persistent
low refinery run rates kept alertness in place. Nonetheless, higher OPEC output and a move by Asian countries to
reduced subsidies maintained some bearish sentiment. In monthly terms, the Basket reached a record-high of $119.39/b
in May for a gain of $14.23 or 13.5%. In the first two weeks of June, the market came under pressure from fund sell-offs
amid CFTC investigations. However, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, low natural gas storage levels and
speculative price projections by investment banks revived market bullishness. The fear premium was boosted by the
threat of conflict in the Middle East triggering another wave of fund inflows in the futures market. The Basket surged to
a record high of $130.87/b on 9 June before declining to stand at $129.77/b on 12 June.
World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month. Following a stronger-thanexpected
performance in the first quarter, forecasts for the Euro-zone and the USA have been revised up slightly by
0.1% to 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Japanese growth is unchanged at 1.4%. US payrolls in May fell for the fifth
month, as job losses rose by 49,000 and the unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 5.5%. The ISM services index remained
above 50 for the second month, indicating that the bulk of the economy was still growing, albeit at a reduced rate, but
manufacturing continued to contract. The dollar recovered from April lows but remained volatile at the start of June, as
the US Federal Reserve signaled clearly that the monetary easing cycle was at an end, and the European Central Bank
prepared the ground for a possible hike in July. Attention turned decidedly to the need for anchoring inflationary
expectations. Inflation remains the main concern worldwide, fed by uninterrupted hikes in food and energy prices.
India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.6%, while China remains unchanged at 9.7% and Russia’s growth forecast was
lifted 0.3 percentage points to 7.3%.
Consumption of winter products declined in the first quarter of 2008 in the OECD as a result of the below-normal winter
temperatures. In addition, demand for transport fuel (mainly gasoline) in the OECD in general but particularly the US
did not grow as expected as a result of slow economic activity and current oil prices. Growth in the other OECD regions
was not enough to offset the decline in oil demand in the US in the first five months of 2008. The slowing US economy
and the current price environment will affect oil demand not only in the US but also across the OECD in the second half
of this year. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to show healthy growth in oil demand for the rest of the year.
Despite the recent removal of price subsidies in some Asian countries, non OECD demand is expected to partially offset
the decline in the US, Europe, and the Pacific. As a result, demand is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2008 to average
86.9 mb/d, a reduction of 60 tb/d from last month’s forecast.
Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d to reach 50.1 mb/d, a downward revision of around 50 tb/d
compared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions made to UK, Australia, Sudan and Kazakhstan were
partially offset by upward adjustments made to USA, Argentina and Russia. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in
2008 are expected to grow at 0.5 mb/d to reach 4.9 mb/d. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, an
increase of 343 tb/d from the previous month, with production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq witnessing significant increases.
Irregular circumstances in the crude market overshadowed positive developments in the product markets, undermining
refining margins in Europe and Asia. The continuing volatile sentiment of the oil market along with slowing gasoline
demand, particularly in the US, may also cap the seasonal bullish developments in the product markets and exert further
pressure on the refining economics in the future. However, unplanned refinery outages due to a potentially active
hurricane season could change the current prospects of the product markets lifting product and crude prices as well as
refining margins.
OPEC spot fixtures dropped 0.6 mb/d in May to average 13.46 mb/d, which corresponds to two-thirds of total spot
fixtures. Similarly, OPEC sailings fell a minor 0.21 mb/d to 23.25 mb/d, partially due to the refinery maintenance
season. The tanker market sentiment remained bullish in May due to tonnage tightness which caused spot freight rates to
increase on all reported routes in an unseasonal trend. The highest gain was observed in VLCCs trading between the
Middle East and the East with an increase of more than 60% in spot freight rates from the previous month.
US commercial oil stocks dropped 4 mb in May due to a draw of more than 19 mb on crude oil inventories and a build
of 15 mb in products. At nearly 306 mb, crude oil stocks are near the five-year average despite the drop which was
driven by low imports following delays in the US Gulf Coast. Gasoline stocks remained within the range while distillate
inventories continued to improve to approach the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories
followed their seasonal trend, jumping 15 mb to remain within the upper end of the five-year range at end-May.
However, total inventories in Japan recovered further in April before surging 14 mb in May to move within the five-year
range, according to preliminary estimates.
The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 260 tb/d over the previous year.
In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d or 130 tb/d lower than in the previous year.
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